NBA Expansion: Which Cities Are Most Likely to Land a New Franchise?
The National Basketball Association (NBA) has spent decades building itself into one of the world’s premier professional sports leagues. With 30 teams — 29 in the United States and one in Canada — the league has steadily increased in popularity both domestically and internationally. For years, talk of NBA expansion has ebbed and flowed, often surfacing when economic factors or shifting sports markets create new opportunities.
In recent seasons, the conversation around expansion has intensified. Commissioner Adam Silver has publicly acknowledged that the league has considered expanding beyond 30 teams, particularly following financial strains from the COVID-19 pandemic. Although no official expansion has been announced, it appears increasingly likely the NBA will grow in the coming years. The pressing question is: where will the next NBA franchises land?
Here’s a comprehensive look at the cities most frequently mentioned as candidates for NBA expansion — and why some markets have a better shot than others.
Why the NBA Wants to Expand
Before looking at potential cities, it’s worth understanding why the NBA is considering expansion. The league has enjoyed financial success, rising viewership, and growing international appeal, especially in emerging markets like Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Expansion offers several advantages:
- New Revenue Streams: Expansion fees (expected to exceed $2 billion per team) would immediately benefit current owners.
- Market Growth: New franchises mean new regional TV deals, merchandise sales, and fan bases.
- Scheduling Balance: Adding two teams would even out the league to 32 teams, simplifying scheduling and playoff structures.
The Leading NBA Expansion Candidates
1. Seattle, Washington
Seattle tops virtually every NBA expansion shortlist — and for good reason. The city’s previous franchise, the Seattle SuperSonics, was a founding member of the league’s modern era, with passionate fans and a rich history. The SuperSonics left in 2008, relocating to Oklahoma City and becoming the Thunder after failed arena negotiations.
Seattle is now ready for an NBA return:
- Climate Pledge Arena: The newly renovated arena, home to the NHL’s Seattle Kraken, is NBA-ready and built to modern league standards.
- Strong Economy: With major corporations like Amazon, Microsoft, and Starbucks headquartered there, the city offers excellent corporate sponsorship opportunities.
- Proven Fan Base: The enduring popularity of the SuperSonics and the city’s strong support for its existing sports franchises make it a prime candidate.
Seattle is widely considered a near-certainty for the next NBA expansion.
2. Las Vegas, Nevada
Las Vegas has rapidly transformed from a city once avoided by major leagues to one of the fastest-growing sports markets in North America. The success of the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights, the relocation of the NFL’s Raiders, and the city’s thriving tourism economy have made Las Vegas a serious contender for an NBA franchise.
Key advantages:
- Tourism-Fueled Market: With millions of visitors annually, Las Vegas offers a unique revenue model for games and events.
- NBA Ties: The city already hosts the NBA Summer League and is the headquarters for USA Basketball.
- Arena Ready: T-Mobile Arena, home to the Golden Knights, is NBA-capable and centrally located.
Las Vegas’s entertainment-focused economy and growing sports culture position it as one of the NBA’s top expansion targets.
Secondary Contenders for NBA Expansion
While Seattle and Las Vegas are widely considered the frontrunners, several other cities are also vying for a spot in the NBA’s future:
3. Louisville, Kentucky
Louisville has a deep basketball tradition, driven by the University of Louisville and the University of Kentucky nearby. It boasts an NBA-ready venue in the KFC Yum! Center and a strong local appetite for basketball. However, the city lacks a large corporate presence, which might affect franchise revenue opportunities and national media appeal.
4. Kansas City, Missouri
Kansas City has hosted NBA basketball before and remains an enthusiastic sports market with successful NFL, MLB, and MLS teams. The T-Mobile Center is a modern, NBA-ready arena. While the city lacks an NBA franchise currently, it offers solid infrastructure, a loyal sports fan base, and growing local support for expansion.
5. San Diego, California
As the largest U.S. city without an NBA, NFL, or NHL franchise, San Diego has long been viewed as a potential expansion destination. It has a large market size, excellent weather, and proximity to other West Coast NBA teams. However, securing a suitable, modern NBA arena remains a major obstacle.
6. Mexico City, Mexico
Mexico City is an intriguing wildcard. As the largest metropolitan area in North America, it offers a massive population and a growing basketball fan base. The NBA has staged regular-season games there with strong attendance. Expanding to Mexico City would also further the league’s international ambitions. Challenges include travel logistics, corporate sponsorship, and infrastructure, though the city’s Arena CDMX is NBA-ready.
Long Shots and Unlikely Candidates
Other cities occasionally mentioned include:
- Nashville, Tennessee
- St. Louis, Missouri
- Tampa, Florida
- Montreal, Canada
- Vancouver, Canada
While these markets offer certain strengths (market size, arenas, or sports enthusiasm), they face challenges such as limited corporate sponsorship, lack of proven basketball history, or conflicts with existing sports franchises.
Notably, while both Montreal and Vancouver have passionate sports cultures, their NBA prospects are dim. Montreal’s market is hockey-dominated, lacks NBA-caliber infrastructure, and presents language-based broadcast challenges in a largely francophone market. Vancouver’s past NBA experience with the Grizzlies, which ended in relocation, still casts a shadow, and the city may struggle to differentiate itself from Seattle’s likely re-entry into the league.
Which Cities Are Most Likely to Get an NBA Team?
If the NBA expands, it’s likely to add two teams to reach a balanced 32-team league. Based on economic viability, infrastructure, market demand, and league interest, the most probable outcome would be:
- Seattle, Washington
- Las Vegas, Nevada
These two cities check all the boxes — modern arenas, strong economies, proven sports markets, and existing NBA ties. Seattle’s return feels inevitable, while Las Vegas’s emergence as a major sports destination makes it a natural fit.
Louisville, Kansas City, and Mexico City could remain in the conversation for future rounds of expansion or potential franchise relocations but currently trail behind the two leaders.
Conclusion: NBA Expansion Is Coming — and We Know Where
The NBA has carefully positioned itself for future growth, with Adam Silver openly acknowledging expansion as an eventuality. While there’s no official timeline, the financial incentives, market demand, and growing international popularity of basketball make it a matter of “when” rather than “if.”
When that time comes, Seattle and Las Vegas stand as the most likely destinations for the NBA’s next franchises, with secondary contenders like Louisville, Kansas City, and Mexico City watching closely from the sidelines. Expansion promises new rivalries, fresh markets, and renewed energy for a league already surging in popularity worldwide.